Within three months of confirming the first case of Covid-19 in Panama, the authorities of the Ministry of Health (Minsa) have failed to stabilize the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
This reality forced the authorities to reestablish the exit restriction measures by gender and ID number in the provinces of Panama and Panama West, where the townships are with the highest number of cases.
Behind the decision there are several factors, including the increase in epidemiological indicators. For example, from the week from May 31 to June 6, 2,986 cases were reported, that is, 545 more than the 2,441 reported from May 24 to 30. In addition, the deaths totaled 56, that is, 25 more than the 31 reported the previous week; while the average of daily infections doubled in the last two weeks.
The official report indicates that in the last three days of last epidemiological week - May 28, 29 and 30 - 403, 400 and 487 cases were reported, respectively. This occurred just before quarantine was lifted and block 2 of economic activities reactivated on June 1.
Jorge Motta, former director of the Gorgas Commemorative Institute for Health Studies and former national secretary of Science, Technology and Innovation, explained in an interview with La Prensa some of the reasons for the situation the country is experiencing in the midst of the pandemic.
Do you think it is a timely decision to resume the mobility restriction in Panama and West Panama?
The decision is a reaction to the exponential increase in cases that we have recently seen in the country. My concern about the increase in cases, and about this decision to restrict mobility, is that the increase in cases began to occur approximately on May 23, during the previous quarantine, which suggests that important measures such as diagnostic tests, detection of asymptomatic cases, identification of infected cases and their contacts, especially in the most affected areas, did not reach the required level.
Do you consider that the population does not comply with the measures of physical distance, use of a mask, among others?
There are individual responsibilities to maintain health and not affect others, and state responsibilities to protect us. Both have failed to fulfill these responsibilities. Panamanians are in the midst of a storm, sailing in different types of boats, some weaker than others. I say this, because Covid-19 infects people suffering from poverty and overcrowding more easily, where the required distance is difficult to meet. That said, not keeping physical distance or not wearing masks explains only part of the problem we are experiencing.
At this point, what would be the most recommended method do to reduce the cases?
To be able to turn the curve, you have to do what you know and have been taught by world experiences: apply more diagnostic tests and bring positive tests to much less than 10%; identify those infected without symptoms, which can be more than 30% of the positives; diagnose the infected and give aggressive follow-up to their contacts, especially in the areas of conglomerates or clusters where infections are concentrated and see how we can isolate those positives who cannot keep the required distance due to their socioeconomic situation.
How is it established that the reported cases are now contagious during the previous quarantine?
If we look at the case curve, it begins to increase on May 23. If we move back 5 or 7 days, which is the period in which those cases on May 23 were probably infected, at that time we were in quarantine. The cases we have seen recently are not only because we do not have a quarantine, but for other reasons already mentioned.
Where do you think the country is failing?
We cannot create a fire department when the house is burning. We should have had those firefighters when this all started. This catastrophe has once again revealed our health and socioeconomic weaknesses. That is why the lesson we cannot forget is that we have to strengthen our health system and, more specifically, our public health system, investing in human capital, laboratories and research.
Did the ideal scenario exist to lift the quarantine on June 1?
The June 1 scenario contained other variables that drove openness, such as gradually returning to our jobs and daily lives. The quarantine, at the beginning of the pandemic, controlled the exponential growth of the infection, but after almost two months it failed to turn the curve downward. It is evident that the other elements, such as diagnostic tests, identification of the infected, traceability and intervention in areas highly affected by the virus, were not robust enough to achieve the desired mitigation.
What opinion do you have of handling the issue on social networks?
Communication between citizens about the pandemic through social networks illustrates how the coronavirus has affected our fragile information system and overwhelmed the networks with a jumble of rumors and falsehoods, amplified by professionals with political agendas. In addition, the recent adulteration of a communication of mine on WhatsApp on this subject is reprehensible.